1. 敘事謬誤

現(xiàn)在有種投資策略越發(fā)流行，叫"技術(shù)分析"。其實是占星術(shù)的分支，即讀圖術(shù)，據(jù)說能"解讀"市場，盡管從走勢圖上根本看不到任何跟公司有關(guān)的信息。人們光是看曲折的走勢圖就能編出個故事，例如市場"動能衰竭"，或是"觸底"之類。

很多投資者癡迷于這種毫無作用的技術(shù)。行為經(jīng)濟學專門研究心理學在財務(wù)決策方面的作用，解釋了其中原因。作者納西姆o尼古拉斯o塔勒布稱之為"敘事謬誤"（Narrative Fallacy）。

It's the human tendency, actually the human need, to impose order on random events and to make events we didn't anticipate seem"predictable" after the fact.

從隨機事件中尋找規(guī)律，事情發(fā)生后將意料之外解讀為"意料之中"是人類本能傾向，也是人類的需要。

The narrative fallacy explains many common financial errors. The news is that it's equally useful for

understanding today's conspiracy politics. It's why, rather than accept that John F. Kennedy was killed by a lone, random gunman, we invented conspiracy theories-to spare us the ontological despair of acknowledging that chaos, not order, rules the universe.

敘事謬誤可以解釋很多金融領(lǐng)域常見的錯誤，在理解當今世界種種政治陰謀時同樣也可以用上。這就是為何人們很難相信刺殺約翰·F·肯尼迪是一個單獨行動的槍手隨機行為，會想象出很多陰謀理論，其實就是不想承認混亂才是宇宙的主流，秩序沒那么強大。

Taleb's The Black Swan, published in 2007, became a handbook for market traders-a reminder that random, extreme events like economic crashes overtake the best of plans.They also overtake individuals-those who happened to be in the wrong place during a natural disaster or who worked in a once-healthy industry, such as journalism, that was undercut by a new technology.

塔勒布的《黑天鵝》一書出版于2007年，很快變成交易員案頭必備書。書中認為面對經(jīng)濟危機之類隨機極端事件，再好的計劃也沒用。個人也難免受到隨機事件打擊，尤其是一些大災(zāi)難中恰好出現(xiàn)在錯誤地方的人，或是在曾經(jīng)輝煌的行業(yè)工作，例如新聞從業(yè)者因為新科技出現(xiàn)失去工作。

許多人都很難接受其實很多領(lǐng)域無法預(yù)測?；仡櫄v史也能發(fā)現(xiàn)很多事沒法解釋?？傮w來說，新聞事件和歷史進程并沒有想象中容易解讀。沒人能準確預(yù)測2011年911事件，也沒有經(jīng)濟學家能在1970年預(yù)測財富分配要開始傾斜，富人變得更富，中產(chǎn)階級陷入停滯。變量實在太多了，而且一些重要的變量（例如新生軟件行業(yè)的潛力）當時很難意識到。

如何避免敘事謬誤？

It's possible to avoid falling for the narrative fallacy. If you're an economist, this means trying not to superimpose, say, a pattern from the last economic cycle on the future. If you're in business, assessing diffuse data to figure out whether to go ahead with an investment, it means resisting the temptation to see a coherent story in that data. Reality is messy. If the investment works, it will have to work in a future that abides a wide range of environments-recessions, new competitors, wars.

不過想避免落入敘事謬誤還是有可能的。如果是經(jīng)濟學家，就不要把上個經(jīng)濟周期的規(guī)律強加在未來走勢上。如果在商業(yè)界，通過評估分散的數(shù)據(jù)來確定要不要繼續(xù)投資時，就要避免從數(shù)據(jù)中找出連貫故事的傾向?，F(xiàn)實很混亂。如果投資策略有效,那么它就得能應(yīng)對未來各種復(fù)雜的環(huán)境,例如經(jīng)濟衰退，出現(xiàn)新競爭者或是戰(zhàn)爭。

投資者尤其要小心過于相信股市里的故事，一旦陷入錯誤邏輯，任何漲跌都只會印證之前的判斷。證券分析可不是尋求真相，說白了就是想盡可能低價買入。但判斷很可能出錯，一些隨機事件就可能導致判斷錯誤。

2. 近因效應(yīng)

想象一下：在NBA總決賽上，克里夫蘭騎士隊的勒布朗o詹姆斯剛剛進了一個跳投。然后他又進了一個。又一個。 三投三中，他手感真棒，接下來這球也跑不了，對吧？

大多數(shù)人都會毫不猶豫地回答："對"。但人們的判斷其實和勒布朗的技術(shù)沒什么關(guān)系，更多來自大腦的猜測?？此埔粋€簡單的預(yù)期，其實是長期進化的結(jié)果。不過這種預(yù)感最大的問題就是準確度不高。從統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)看，勒布朗投進的可能性并不比打到籃筐彈出去的可能性大多少，跟之前是否連續(xù)進球沒什么關(guān)系。

This leaping-to-conclusions phenomenon is called"recency bias," and it's deep in our emotional wiring. "It's an interesting effect," says Dan Ariely, a professor of behavioral economics at Duke University and the author of books including Predictably Irrational (and the originator of the hoops analogy). "We look atthe most recent evidence, take it too seriously, and expect that things will continue in that way."

這種不假思索就得出結(jié)論的現(xiàn)象叫做"近因效應(yīng)"，深藏在我們的情感脈絡(luò)中。杜克大學行為經(jīng)濟學教授、《可預(yù)測的非理性》（Predictably Irrational）等書作者（也是最早提出上述投籃類比的人）丹·艾瑞里說："這種效應(yīng)很有趣。人們總是看最新的證據(jù)，過于當真，而且預(yù)計后面會發(fā)生同樣的事。"

近因效應(yīng)對投資者來說很特別危險，一個不留神就會變成為人們大腦中錯估投資方向的罪魁禍首。

市場專業(yè)人士也難免受這種思維方式影響。2008年初，全球經(jīng)濟乍現(xiàn)疲軟之勢。但在連續(xù)五年實現(xiàn)正回報以后，股票分析師的信心也升至歷史高點。研究機構(gòu)Bespoke Investment Group最近的研究顯示，當時華爾街一致認為市場還能上漲11.1%。大家應(yīng)該想到了，分析師的預(yù)測主要依據(jù)也是近期行情。我們也都知道接下來發(fā)生了什 么--經(jīng)濟斷崖式下跌，當年標普500指數(shù)跌去了38.5%。

Recency bias also helps explain retail investor behavior during times of greed or panic. Assets often flow into stocks near market tops and exit at the bottom-exactly the opposite of what investors should be doing, says David Santschi, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research.

近因效應(yīng)還有助于解釋貪婪或恐慌行情中散戶的行為。投資研究公司TrimTabsInvestment Research首席執(zhí)行官大衛(wèi)o桑茨奇指出，資產(chǎn)流入經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)在股市就要見頂時，流出則經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)在市場底部，正好跟投資者應(yīng)該采取的操作相反。

如何克服近因效應(yīng)？

包括"近因效應(yīng)"在內(nèi)，根深蒂固的思維習慣可能影響投資者的決策，導致投資蒙受損失。以下三種方法可以盡量克服。

Watch out for high prices

價格高時要當心

Unusually high price/earnings valuations are often a sign that the party for stocks has gone on a little too long. With stocks trading well above their averages, now may be a good time to sell big winners and put the profits aside.

如果市盈率高得離譜，經(jīng)常意味著股票上漲時間有些過長。目前股票價格已經(jīng)遠高于平均水平，或許是個賣出大漲股落袋為安的好機會。

Play it safe for retirement

為了退休安全操作

The years immediately before and after retirement are when losses can hurt an investor's long-term plans the most. Savers in that life stage should consider putting more money in cash and bonds-no matter how bullish they feel.

退休前后幾年是投資損失對長期計劃影響最嚴重的時候。處在這個階段的人應(yīng)該考慮把資金更多地配置在現(xiàn)金和債券上，不管感覺市場有多牛。

Rely on an autopilot

依靠"自動駕駛"

When emotions run high, it helps to have tools that discourage buying or selling on impulse. Target-date funds, "robo-advisers," and annuities can help investors avoid taking excessive risks in good times or panic selling in bad.

在興奮狀態(tài)下，阻止沖動型買賣的工具會很有用。目標日期基金、"智能投顧"以及年金都可以幫助投資者避免在牛市中冒太多風險，或者在熊市中恐慌拋售。